Perspective: Prof. Xueqin Jiang on Escalating Global Conflicts

The Chain Reaction Toward World War III Has Begun: Prof. Jiang’s Predictions

Prof. Xueqin Jiang on Using History and Game Theory to Predict Global Conflict

In an era of shifting global powers, the specter of World War III looms larger than ever. Professor Xueqin Jiang, host of the educational YouTube channel Predictive History, argues that by examining structural forces, national interests, and historical precedents through the lens of game theory, we can foresee major geopolitical upheavals.

In a recent interview with Professor Glenn Diesen, a noted expert on Russian foreign policy and geoeconomics, Jiang outlined evidence suggesting that the world is already on a path to World War III. This path, he explains, is driven by chain reactions from ongoing conflicts, much like those that ignited the previous two world wars. Without a mechanism to reverse these escalations, the risk of a broader confrontation grows daily.

Jiang’s analysis begins with the latest U.S. National Security Strategy, released just weeks ago under President Trump. This document marks a pivotal shift away from multilateralism and the so-called rules-based international order. Previously, America positioned itself as the global enforcer, ensuring compliance with these rules. Now, with that order eroded, the strategy emphasizes raw national self-interest. A key focus is securing the Western Hemisphere under an expanded Monroe Doctrine, dubbed the “Trump Corridor.” This involves countering Russian and Chinese influence in South America, where China has built extensive trade and investment ties benefiting local populations.

Jiang points to recent escalations in Venezuela as a prime example: U.S. naval forces, comprising 10% of America’s fleet, have amassed in the Caribbean, and American actions have included diverting a Venezuelan oil tanker to Houston. Such moves, Jiang warns, infringe on the sovereignty of neighboring countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, potentially drawing the entire region into conflict and contributing to the buildup toward World War III.

Turning to Europe, Jiang describes the Russia-Ukraine war as essentially concluded, with Russia facing resource shortages on the battlefield and Ukraine suffering from collapsed morale, 100,000 desertions, and millions fleeing abroad. Despite this, European leaders insist on prolonging the fight, proposing to seize 210 billion euros in frozen Russian assets or provide interest-free loans to Kyiv.

Their fear is that a peace deal would allow Russia to consolidate gains and leverage Ukrainian resources against European interests. This refusal to negotiate, Jiang argues, mirrors historical patterns where limited wars spiral out of control, setting the stage for World War III. He invokes game theory to explain how each actor’s pursuit of self-interest—Europe’s desire for supremacy versus Russia’s need for security—creates an inescapable escalation dynamic.

The Middle East presents another flashpoint in Jiang’s forecast for World War III. Tensions between Israel and Iran continue to intensify, despite nominal peace treaties with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Jiang notes that Israel appears uninterested in upholding these agreements, with plans to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon imminent. Hamas, he says, cannot disarm without risking annihilation by Israeli proxies.

Baseless accusations against Iran—for incidents like the shooting of a nuclear physicist in the U.S. and a tragic event on Sydney’s Bondi Beach where 16 people died—further fuel the fire, especially with Mossad’s involvement in investigations. These pretexts, lacking evidence, could trigger massive flare-ups in 2026, pulling in regional and global powers and accelerating the chain reaction toward World War III.

Diesen and Jiang draw parallels to the pre-World War I era, when Germany’s rapid industrialization outpaced Britain’s dominance. In 1871, Britain produced twice as much steel as Germany; by 1914, Germany had doubled Britain’s output. Yet, the European security architecture remained British-controlled, leading to inevitable conflict.

Similarly, today, China’s economy has surpassed the U.S. in purchasing power parity since 2014, and Russia has rebounded to become Europe’s largest economy by some measures. Despite this, Western institutions exclude them, echoing the Treaty of Versailles’ failure to integrate Germany post-World War I—a mistake that paved the way for World War II. Jiang emphasizes that acknowledging provocations, like NATO’s eastward expansion ignoring Putin’s warnings for two decades, does not legitimize aggression but explains the path to World War III.

Historical Continuities and the Risk of World War III

A recurring theme in the discussion is the Mackinder Heartland Theory, which posits that control of Eurasia’s core grants world dominance. Historically, Britain sowed chaos on the continent to prevent unification, financing wars against Napoleon and opposing German and Russian rises. Jiang argues that the U.S. now adopts this maritime strategy, disrupting Eurasian integration to preserve its hegemony.

With Russia pushed toward Asia and allied with China—the world’s manufacturing superpower—this creates a formidable bloc. The BRICS nations, including Iran as a pivotal hub for trade routes like the Belt and Road Initiative, threaten the U.S. dollar’s reserve status and America’s $30 trillion debt Ponzi scheme. To counter this, the U.S. aims for regime change in Iran, not outright victory but enough chaos to fracture alliances, heightening the odds of World War III.

Game theory underpins Jiang’s predictions: actors pursue rational self-interests, but collective outcomes lead to disaster. For instance, the U.S. economically strangles China by blocking access to South American resources like lithium (crucial for EVs and AI) and African investments.

This forces China to militarize to protect trade, reminiscent of pre-World War I arms races. In Venezuela, Trump’s rhetoric frames intervention as anti-drug operations, but the real goal is controlling the world’s largest oil reserves and turning the country into an economic vassal. This could draw in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Brazil, which benefits from Chinese trade in soybeans and infrastructure. South American nations, scarred by past CIA coups, may covertly support Venezuela, escalating a limited conflict into a regional one that feeds into World War III.

In the Middle East, an Israeli attack on Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil supplies to China, Japan, and South Korea. This might prompt Russian aid to Iran, perhaps by advancing on Odessa in Ukraine, forcing European conscription and full mobilization. Jiang hypothesizes interconnected dominoes: U.S. bogged down in Venezuela, Israel strikes Iran, Russia pushes in Ukraine, and Japan escalates rhetoric with China. Such mission creep—starting as advisory roles but ballooning, as in Vietnam—illustrates how wars escape control, propelling us toward World War III.

Domestic Decline and the Inevitability of World War III

Jiang incorporates Oswald Spengler’s checklist for civilizational decline, signaling the West’s deathbed phase. Over-urbanization creates parasitic megacities focused on luxury rather than production. Demographic collapse sees young people forgoing families due to bleak futures. Extreme inequality allows a tiny elite—0.1%—to control assets, like billionaires acquiring media empires. Wars rely on proxies (Ukrainians against Russia, no U.S. troops since 2003 Iraq), avoiding domestic casualties. Decadence prevails, with phenomena like widespread OnlyFans participation among young women. Mass immigration erodes social cohesion, as natives shun labor. Hubris prevents empires from accepting mortality; billionaires chase immortality, mirroring America’s refusal to yield power.

This internal rot undermines war efforts: German youth prefer Putin rule over conscription, and Western messaging glorifies individualism over sacrifice. Yet, the U.S. strategy vows to defend its empire fiercely, using allies as cannon fodder (Japan and South Korea against China) and resorting to piracy, like boarding Chinese ships to Iran. The facade of a rules-based order is gone; force reigns. Jiang warns this won’t end in a whimper like the Soviet collapse but a bang, with conflicts raging 10-20 years.

Diesen echoes that Europe’s delusion of escalation control—sending troops to Ukraine to “stabilize” without broader war—ignores history. Peace talks with Putin or Xi seem impossible amid childish narratives of good versus evil. Jiang hopes he’s wrong but sees no reverse button. The world enters an undiscovered country, bracing for World War III’s chain reactions.

👉 Share your thoughts in the comments, and explore more insights on our Journal and Magazine. Please consider becoming a subscriber, thank you: https://dunapress.org/subscriptions – Follow The Dunasteia News on social media. Join the Oslo Meet by connecting experiences and uniting solutions: https://oslomeet.org

References

• YouTube Video: Chain Reaction Toward World War III Has Begun – https://youtu.be/P5gG9xXBQZE?si=ii8QXFAt9C6u8Tro
• Glenn Diesen Wikipedia Page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Diesen
• Predictive History YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@predictivehistory
• U.S. National Security Strategy 2025: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
• Mackinder’s Heartland Theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
• Causes of World War I: https://www.history.com/articles/world-war-i-causes
• Interwar Period and Path to World War II: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interwar_period
• Game Theory in Geopolitics: https://news.mit.edu/2018/game-theory-politics-alexander-wolitzky-1204
• Oswald Spengler’s Decline of the West (Academic Reference): https://www.britannica.com/biography/Oswald-Spengler
• Broader Analysis on Geoeconomics: Glenn Diesen’s Book “The Ukraine War and the Eurasian World Order” (via Wikipedia references)